Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Big US bank may go under

There is still a lot of concern about the financial system, and with inflation fears lingering that's make gold a safe haven. We seen gold had a slight rebound after the dollar decline yesterday, however, the downtrend in gold is very much intact and remains particularly weak in near term. It need to recapture 850 level for more than 3 days consecutively for reversal to be meaningful.

The rest of the commodities staged a rebound as the dollar weakened on profit-taking and reported higher US PPI figures than forecast in July 2008 which rose at their sharpest rate in 27 years. The US housing starts fall to 17 year low.

This show inflation is still running high even as the U.S. economy slows but expectations are for it to moderate in the coming months as the economy cools and oil prices drop further.

Federal Reserve are unlikely to act on these belief until evidence of sustained price stabilization appears. If slow growth fails to contain inflationary pressures
the Federal Reserve would run the risk of losing public's confidence to fight inflation.

A former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff mentioned that subprime crisis not over yet and there may be a risk of large US investment banks or big US banks failing. The market view neglects the point that the financial system has become very bloated in size and needed to shrink. It was estimated to be US$11 trillion of shadow banking.

In Germany, the producer price inflation rate jumps to highest since October 1981. In Japan, BOJ says economy is sluggish.

Investors around the world remain concerned that the world economy isn't getting better anytime soon, and the credit crisis remains a threat.

Only when the prevailing mass psychology is all bearish do bear markets end. As by then there are few sellers left to pushes down prices and there is often a final fall prior to the end of a bear market. Similar applies for a bull run.

Continue to read the next article below to find a bull in a bear market.

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